Japan’s 2026 Defense White Paper Warns of China’s Expanding Military Reach in the Pacific

On August 4, Japan’s Cabinet approved the 2026 edition of its annual defense white paper, warning that China is steadily expanding its military reach into the Pacific beyond the First Island Chain, the strategic arc linking Japan’s southwestern islands, Taiwan, and the Philippines. 

The report, Defense of Japan 2026, again described China as “an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge” to Japan’s peace and security, repeating language first adopted in Japan’s revised National Security Strategy in 2022. This year’s white paper placed particular emphasis on China’s expanding military activities in the Pacific, highlighting what Tokyo views as Beijing’s growing ability to project military power beyond the so-called First Island Chain and increasingly deeper into the Pacific.

The report argued that these challenges should be addressed by strengthening Japan’s “comprehensive national power,” together with closer cooperation with allies and like-minded partners. It also emphasized lessons from modern warfare and the need to reinforce Japan’s defense industrial base.

The white paper said that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has become increasingly active around Japan in the East China Sea, the Sea of Japan, and the western Pacific beyond the First Island Chain.

According to the report, these operations are intended not only to improve the PLA’s combat capabilities but also to create a “fait accompli” by establishing a regular military presence in the area.

“Repeated joint activities are obviously intended as demonstration activities against Japan and pose a grave concern for Japan’s security,” the report stated.

A newly added graphic section highlighted China’s expanding military activities in the Pacific, including aircraft carrier deployments, long-range naval operations, and other activities beyond the First Island Chain.

It cited the deployment of the aircraft carrier Liaoning east of Iwo Jima in June 2025 and subsequent carrier operations in the Pacific – including its first confirmed operations beyond the Second Island Chain, which stretches from Japan’s Izu and Ogasawara islands to Guam and Saipan – underscoring what Tokyo sees as China’s growing ability to sustain naval and air operations farther from its coastline.

The report also referred to an incident in which a Chinese military aircraft repeatedly targeted a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force patrol aircraft with a laser for about 30 minutes over the Pacific east of Okinawa.

Taiwan also featured prominently. The white paper noted that China has repeatedly conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan since 2022. The report argued that the exercises are intended both to increase military pressure on Taiwan and improve the PLA’s operational capabilities.

It reiterated Japan’s long-standing position that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are indispensable to Japan’s security and to the stability of the international community.

The report argued that China’s growing military reach is reinforced by closer operational coordination with Russia.

For the first time, the Ministry of Defense’s public digest contained a dedicated section illustrating the evolution of China-Russia military cooperation, including joint naval exercises, long-range bomber patrols, coordinated naval operations, and participation in each other’s military exercises. The report said that the scale, frequency and geographic scope of these activities have continued to expand.

On a related note, the report reflects Tokyo’s growing concern that security developments in Europe and the Indo-Pacific can no longer be viewed separately.

Regarding North Korea, the white paper stated that Pyongyang has continued providing Russia with ballistic missiles, artillery ammunition, and other military equipment since 2023, while North Korean troops have participated in combat operations following their deployment to Russia.

It warned that expanding Russia-North Korea military cooperation could strengthen North Korea’s military capabilities over the medium to long term.

The white paper said that North Korean forces could gain valuable battlefield experience from the war in Ukraine. The ministry does not currently assess that Russian assistance has already strengthened North Korea’s military capabilities, but warned that continued cooperation could eventually lead to technology transfers and improvements in Pyongyang’s military strength.

One of the most notable additions to this year’s white paper is a new section examining what it called the “new way of warfare.” Drawing lessons from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the report highlighted the growing role of drones, artificial intelligence, and adequate stockpiles in future warfare.

It also stressed the importance of sustaining combat operations during prolonged conflicts.

Reflecting those lessons, the white paper elevated the section on Japan’s defense production and technological base from a chapter to a full part of the report, underscoring its growing importance to national defense. It also referred to the easing of Japan’s defense equipment export rules earlier this year, arguing that defense exports can strengthen the deterrence capabilities of partner countries while helping build an environment for mutual support among allies and like-minded nations. 

Taken together, the 2026 white paper portrayed China’s expanding military reach into the Pacific as the defining feature of Japan’s security environment. Japan must respond, the report argued, not only through higher defense spending, but also by strengthening alliances, its defense industrial base, and preparations for a new era of warfare.