India at a Crossroads: Examining Comprehensive National Power and the Road to 2047

Turbulence and conflicts have dominated the first six years of the 2020s. Events like the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the conflict in West Asia have disrupted the normal way of life across the world. COVID-19 disrupted global supply chains, exposing the vulnerabilities of nations dependent on some others for critical needs. That forced nations to look inwards, focusing on self-sufficiency and self-reliance. The Russia-Ukraine war that followed soon after further exposed key vulnerabilities in global security as well as intertwined issues of trade dependency and connectivity. 

However, the mother of all disruptions has resulted from the war in Iran, leading to closure of sea traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point through which almost 20 percent of world’s crude oil and other petroleum products transit. The conflict is thus causing an unprecedented global energy crisis. 

Yet India has been able to wade through these multiple crises successfully and its economy still continues to grow steadily. India developed a COVID-19 vaccine, which it exported to more than 110 countries. India thus won the trust and respect of the world. 

When the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, it was India’s message that resonated across the globe: “this is not the era of war.” Simultaneously, it withstood pressure from Europe and the United States and continued to buy crude oil from Russia to safeguard its energy security and exercise strategic autonomy.

Amid the ongoing war in Iran, India was quick on its feet to secure supplies of crude oil. As a result, India has successfully diversified its import basket and met its crude oil import requirements of 5 million barrels per day in June and July. 

India is already the world’s fifth-largest economy by nominal GDP. It has one of the world’s largest armed forces, which proved their mettle during Operation Sindoor in May 2025. For the last 12 years across three elections, India has enjoyed political continuity too as it has given mandate to the same political party, the Bharatiya Janata Party. On the diplomatic front, it has expanded its diplomatic footprint across the Global South and has projected itself as its voice and leader. India is also emerging as a critical player in technology, the renewable energy transition, and supply chain diversification. The indicators in public health too have improved significantly over the years and alumni of Indian institutes of high learning like IIT, IIM, and AIIMS are leading global corporations and business. 

So just how powerful is India? To assess these key parameters of national growth and benchmark them collectively, a broader framework called comprehensive national power (CNP) may present a better picture. 

While there is no universally accepted definition of CNP, it is in effect the sum of a nation’s hard and soft power, which cumulatively dictate how much that country can safeguard its national interests and influence global affairs. It can also be assessed in terms of a nation’s ability to mobilize its economic, military, technological, and soft power resources to achieve its strategic goals. 

The Lowy Institute measures CNP through an “Asia Power Index,” which examines more than hundred parameters across eight thematic measures of power: economy, military, resilience, future resources, economic relationships, defense networks, diplomatic influence and cultural influence. For the year 2025, it has ranked India third, behind the United States and China.

India’s Economy 

The economy has generally been India’s strongest growth parameter in recent times. India is maintaining a steady growth rate of GDP at 6-7 percent, making it the fastest growing major economy in the world. That is driven by India’s renewed focus on manufacturing, innovation, and exports. 

A large consumer market of more than 1.4 billion people helps sustain domestic manufacturing while the operationalizing of free trade agreements is propelling growth in exports and manufacturing. India has set a target of achieving $1 trillion in exports for FY2026-27, with $530 billion in merchandise exports and $470 billion in services exports. This is against a total export of $863 billion last year. 

India’s push for rapid expansion in digital banking and transaction as well as financial inclusion of its marginalized population too is significant. Key tax reforms like the Goods and Services Tax, which have matured over a decade, are adding to government revenues while production-linked incentives including soft loans are propelling jobs and manufacturing across various sectors. A strong foreign exchange reserve, at $600 billion, gives India a cushion against global volatility while an increased push toward making world-class infrastructure like airports, seaports, expressways, etc. is helping overcome huge losses due to inefficient logistics.  

However, these measures will not suffice. Sustained growth of over 7 percent over the next two decades, a focus on manufacturing and exports, self-reliance, smoother logistics and measures to facilitate “ease of doing business” will be crucial for India to realize its economic goals of becoming a developed country by 2047.

India’s Military

Military power is the next significant parameter to measure India’s strength. India has the world’s third-largest armed forces. It is not only the numbers that is making India a military power to notice. Just as important are India’s technological integration and the push toward self-reliance and domestic manufacturing. 

With a tested and fielded “nuclear triad,” a rapidly evolving tri-service military structure, a formidable and diversified missile program, space technology, blue water naval capabilities, and cybersecurity structures, India is a force to reckon with. Modern weapons platforms like the BrahMos missiles, Akashteer air defense systems, hypersonic missiles, and nuclear-powered submarines can help India to project power well beyond the neighborhood. 

The push toward self-reliance and the participation of private industry in defense manufacturing are propelling India’s defense industry. India’s arms exports amounted to almost 390 billion rupees in FY2025-26.

Now India has its eye on future procurements of weapon platforms like fifth-generation fighter aircraft, under terms including transfer of technology, as well as full integration and control over avionics, electronics, and guidance. India is set to emerge as one of the world’s premier military powers. 

However, there are major challenges along the way. India’s defense production and modernization is still uneven and fragmented. The Indian Air Force still runs short in numbers of modern fighter aircraft; advanced technology like aero engines and electronics still need to be mastered. Plus, India’s continued dependence on imports for many significant platforms still compromises strategic autonomy. On top of everything, the unique challenge of a two-front conflict against Pakistan and China poses significant challenges.  

India’s Technology

Technology is the next key determinant of CNP. Artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors, quantum computing, biotechnology, cyber capabilities, and space systems are increasingly shaping national power. Fortunately, India has made remarkable progress in several areas. 

India’s Aadhaar, UPI, and digital governance platforms are shining examples of India’s capacity for technological innovation at scale. India’s space program is one of the world’s most modern and advanced. Lunar missions, Mars exploration, satellite launches, and growing commercial space participation have strengthened India’s technological profile. The successful launch of India’s first private space rocket, Vikram-1, by Skyroot Airspace adds more muscle to India’s space program. 

In the field of modern and critical technology, India has already taken steps to promote semiconductor assembly and manufacturing, exploration of critical minerals, and national missions to harness AI and cyber technologies.

However, India still has much to do to catch up with the world’s technology leaders. India has to spend more time and money on research and development. The idea of “sunk costs” has to be accepted for India to develop its own tech platforms like Google, and Microsoft. The startup system in India has to finally end in producing at least a few world level tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, Meta etc. 

The next phase of global competition will be determined by control over advanced technologies. Unless India substantially increases R&D investment, and industrial innovation, its technological CNP will lag behind its economic potential.

India’s Demographics

Demography and development of human resources is the next big factor in CNP. With a median age of 29 years and 68 percent of the population of working age (15-64 years), India has the greatest demographic advantage in the world, especially at a time when other nations are grappling with a rapidly reducing working population and increasing elderly population. 

How India uses this demographic dividend over the next two decades will be a key determinant of its growth trajectory. Rising numbers of graduates, more numbers taking STEM as a preferred choice in education, and reducing rates of illiteracy point are positive trends. Improved medical services, more hospitals and doctors, reduced infant mortality and maternal mortality along with universal medical cover schemes like Ayushman Bharat are positive indicators in harnessing the true potential of a growing population. However, jobs, social integration, and constructive engagement of the population will be the key to actually making the most of India’s demographic dividend.

Political stability and democratic resilience are yet another strength for India. Over the past 12 years, only one political party has been in power at the center; that has ensured continuity and the ability to pursue long-term reforms in infrastructure, economy, defense, and foreign policy. However, India needs to work around bureaucratic complexities, corruption, judicial delays, land acquisition challenges, and regulatory uncertainty to truly take advantage of political continuity. 

Diplomacy and Soft Power

India’s diplomatic influence has significantly expanded over the past decade. That is due to the sum total of progress of everything already discusses: India’s economy, military, technology, and demographics. India’s leadership in global platforms like the G20, BRICS, and Indian Ocean Rim Association has made significant contributions while minilaterals like the Quad and I2U2 (India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States) have helped India forge focused global partnerships. 

The G20 Summit of 2023, which India presided over, is still counted as the most successful international summit in recent times. India’s effort toward becoming the voice of Global South and its contributions in U.N. peacekeeping missions as one of the largest troops-contributing countries are widely acknowledged too. 

India’s soft power projection is something unique. Almost 35 million Indians are living abroad (including 18 million people of Indian origin) – more than the total population of many countries in Europe. In the Gulf region especially, Indians outnumber most other expatriates, placing them in a significant advantage. However, beyond the numbers and remittances, India has a lot to do to constructively engage with Indians abroad in pushing toward achievements of its national interests.

Conclusion

CNP presents a more detailed assessment of India’s rise than mere GDP figures. As we look ahead toward 2047, one thing is clear: India’s growth trajectory is likely to continue. However, unless India continues to build on its economic reforms, military modernization, and self-reliance, all-round infrastructure development, technological development, diplomatic engagement, and its unique advantage in human resource, it may well fall short of its goal of a developed India by 2047.